Bond yields near 9%, may hit crisis levels

[Editor: As we have seen in the earlier report, bond yield over 6% is never good for any stock market.] 

Saturday, Aug 17, 2013: Yields on government bonds jumped 40-50 basis points on Friday as the rupee fell to fresh record lows and weekly gilt auctions were marred by partial devolvement.

Yields on the 10-year benchmark government bond 7.16% 2023 spiked 40 basis points (bps) to close at 8.9% on Friday. Such a level was last seen in November 2011.

Yields on the AAA-rated corporate bond surged to 10.3%.

The movement was sharper after cut-offs were declared at the weekly government bond auction. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) auctioned Rs 16,000 crore worth of government securities as part of its weekly market borrowing programme. The papers included the current 10-year benchmark government bond, which witnessed a cut-off of 8.74% in the auction.

Gilts worth Rs 1,444 crore were devolved on primary dealers. Yield cut-off of 9.2% for bonds maturing in 2019, 2032 and 2035 was higher than expected by the market.

Going forward, yields are expected to rise higher in case the RBI does not roll back the liquidity tightening measures.

“A level of 9% is not too far. Yields may rise higher, maybe to levels of 9.40-9.50% seen in 2008,” said Ajay Manglunia, senior vice-president at Edelweiss Capital.

A gloomy economic outlook, indicated by high inflation and rupee depreciation, could cause further rise in bond yields. Fears of an early tapering by the US Fed gathered momentum after the country reported an improvement in jobs data on Thursday. The 10-year benchmark US Treasury yield rose to 2.77%, the highest since July 2011.

Spike in government bond yields impacted the corporate bond market as well. The spreads between corporate bonds and the government bond of the respective tenure have also jumped to one-and-a-half-year high levels.

According to market players, while there is redemption pressure in the secondary markets, issuers are finding it difficult to raise funds in the primary market as well.

The Rural Electrification Corporation, which is a frequent issuer, was planning a 3-5 year bond this week. However, the issuance did not take place due to a sudden spurt in yields.

The company may now try to tap the markets next week and raise Rs 500-1,000 crore depending on market conditions.

Courtesy: DNA India