The world economic data slate becomes heavier as the week progresses. The precious metals markets are keenly awaiting those new market inputs. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday will announce its latest monetary policy actions. While no interest rate changes are anticipated from the Fed, the FOMC statement Wednesday afternoon will be very closely scrutinized for clues on future Fed monetary policy. The European Central Bank holds its monthly meeting on Thursday. Many market watchers think the ECB will lower interest rates at Thursday’s gathering. The monthly U.S. jobs report is due out Friday morning.
In overnight news, Italian bond yields fell to a 2.5-year low at the latest 10-year bond auction as investors embraced the new Italian coalition government. A German short-term government debt auction Monday saw funding costs at the lowest level since November, at virtually zero return for the debt buyers. This underscores the keener European investor uncertainty regarding the overall health of the European Union. Euro zone business confidence declined in April, it was reported Monday, in the latest dour economic data coming out of the EU.
The U.S. dollar index was lower Monday on profit taking from recent gains. The greenback bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading and need to show fresh power soon to keep their near-term technical edge. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices were higher Monday. Crude oil bulls have gained good upside near-term technical momentum recently, which is a bullish underlying factor for the raw commodity sector, including the precious metals.
The London P.M. gold fix is $1,467.50 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,471.50.
Technically, June gold futures prices closed near mid-range Monday and closed at a fresh two-week high close. Bulls have gained good upside technical momentum to suggest that a near-term market bottom is now in place. However, gold prices remain in a seven-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and the bears still have the overall technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,500.00. Bears’ next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,400.00. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $1,479.30 and then at last week’s high of $1,484.80. First support is seen at Monday’s low of $1,461.60 and then at $1,447.30.
July silver futures closed nearer the session high Monday and closed at a fresh two week high close. More short covering and bargain hunting were featured. While silver bears are still in overall technical control, the bulls have gained upside momentum recently. However, silver prices are still in a seven-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $24.475 and then at last week’s high of $24.835. Next support is seen at Monday’s low of $23.945 and then at $23.62.
May N.Y. copper closed up 405 points at 322.50 cents Monday. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw more short covering and bargain hunting. The key “outside markets” were in a bullish posture for copper today as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were higher. Copper bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls’ next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 335.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of 305.70 cents. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 324.10 cents and then at last week’s high of 328.20 cents. First support is seen at 320.00 cents and then at 317.50 cents.