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Friday, April 12, 2013

Market Mantra
 (Excerpts of my mid-market inputs to the Paid Service Members)
Yesterday, the market movement was in line with expectation, as the Nifty closed a net gain of 36 points. Although it was a volatile session throughout the day, Nifty managed to close around 5600 mark. Smart recovery in Nifty from new low shows buying interest, which till now is seen even in the broader market too today. Moreover, inability to breakdown 5525 decisively and a bounce back is a sign of strength. 

It seems from today's arrangements, the market may not correct too much from the current ranges. Today's fall in Nifty is more to do with the Infosys Ltd's results, rather than a broad based correction. The traders are suggested to hold on to their long positions maintaining strict stop losses mentioned in my earlier post (Sent to the Paid Members and to those who are trading through my Brokerage House). Nifty_Spot is now trading at 5515 and Nifty_Futures at 5527.

Resistance: 5600 / 5640 
Support: 5500 / 5480
Key Asian markets were trading mixed today, with Japan's Nikkei slipping 0.6% on profit booking as the yen rebounded from lows against the dollar.
US indices advanced for a fourth straight session on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 again hitting new closing highs on better-than-expected retail sales and jobless claims data.
Fundamentally, speaking, Poor Infosys numbers are taking a toll on the markets today, while the broader market, led by RIL, HDFC, SBI, etc, are more or less steady. Even the Tata Steel Ltd (TISCO) and Tata Sponge Ltd are up today. Jindal Steel and Power Ltd should also do well in the coming days, due to its strong fundamentals and pick up in construction activities.
Today, the media reports showed that the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for the month of February grew at 0.6% versus a growth of 2.4% in January. This is above the general consensus of a contraction of 1.2% (or negative 1,2%). The consensus estimates of the poll ranged between 1.8% to (-) 3%. Meanwhile, in another significant positive development, the Retail inflation declined to 10.39% in March, snapping a five month rising trend, as prices of vegetables and protein based items eased. Thus, it is now widely accepted that in the next policy meet, RBI will go for another 25 basis points cut in the internet rates. Also, with the government coming up with export incentives on 18th of April, 2013 and finance bill to be tabled in the next Parliament Session, the market could continue to maintain their bullish undertone, at least during the next few trading sessions.  
Stocks to watch for today’s trade:
  • (+VE) ADITYA BIRLA NUVO: Is looking at high-growth areas like financial services, fashion retailing and urea for investment of close to 80 bln rupees. 
  • (+VE) ERA INFRA ENGINEERING: Has won order worth 4.30 bln rupees from NTPC for thermal power project in Chhattisgarh. .
Tulip Telecom Ltd, could continue hitting upper circuits for some more time, as there are no negatives on the company. The stock has been battered too much from Rs.41-42, from where it fell. The investors are suggested to hold on to their positions and add the scrip in all declines. CMP: Rs.12.45. 
Why Kingfisher Airlines Ltd suddenly looks bullish: In case of Kingfisher Airlines Ltd (Rs.7.63) it is now accepted that the company would start flying, in the near future, by hook or crook. There were media reports that, airline's CEO Sanjay Aggarwal said  "We have shared the funding and traffic plans. The initial funding to restart the airline will come from the (parent UB) Group. We have also requested that our (flying) licence be renewed," after meeting DGCA chief Arun Mishra in New Delhi. Kingfisher's flying license or the Scheduled Operator's Permit (SOP) was suspended in October and later lapsed in December after the airline was grounded following a strike by its employees, including pilots, over non-payment of dues. The company owes an estimated Rs.13,582 crore to banks, its staff, airport operators and oil companies, as of 31st March, 2013. This is expected to come down a bit, after the banks sold some of the collateral against the loans given to the company--hence the exact debt figures are still awaited. But it would be lower than the 31st March, 2013, figures.  Meanwhile, Airports Authority of India (AAI) has made it clear that it would not allow Kingfisher Airlines to operate on 'cash and carry' basis till the grounded carrier cleared its dues amounting to almost Rs.400 crore. But what has to be understood is that, this is a very small amount as compared to the total outstanding debt of the company. When the company is risking few thousand crore from its kitty, not allowing to start its operation for such a paltry sum does not make sense. Kingfisher Airlines plans to resume operations with seven aircraft. KFA Ltd has also proposed to clear nine months' salaries of its employees soon.  Hereto, the bull and bears are evenly balanced, as still the question mark remains on its start of operation in the near term; but what made me optimistic is the market murmur that Kingfisher Airlines might adopt a strategy to bypass the Airports Authority of India-operated airports and try and launch flights from the privately-managed airports like the ones in the four major metro cities of Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore and Hyderabad that are operated by the GMR and the GVK infrastructure companies. There were reports in a section of the media that, Kingfisher said the airline may consider such a move to operate only from airports managed by private operators.  "We need to be operating and that is important. If AAI is the stumbling block, then other options have to be explored," said a Kingfisher Airlines executive, who did not wish to be named The UB Group has so far pumped in over Rs.2,200 crore into the airline and more funding is proposed to enable the airline to fly again, chief executive officer Sanjay Aggarwal had said on Wednesday. I therefore suggest you to buy some quantities of the scrip, if you have some extra-cash, and wait for the announcement of any positive news for further increase of your holdings. CMP: Rs.7.63.