Friday, March 01, 2013

~~Suman Mukhopadhyay
Recently there were some disturbing news in Mumbai Mirror that, Office rentals in Bandra Kurla Complex, and Parel in Mumbai (Bombay) have come down by 20-40%. (Mumbai Mirror). Now the question is: has the time come for a crash in the real estate price in Mumbai, with the real estate developers saddled with loans and number of unsold homes increasing in every passing day. According to a report published in a reputed daily,  the number of unsold flats in Mumbai has risen to 39,295 units in January, from 37,800 in October 2012. This gives some indication that buyers are perhaps not unwilling to shell out the exorbitant amounts for apartments. The trend is reflected in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) too, where the number of unsold flats rose to 1.19 lakh units from 1.11 lakh in October. MMR includes Thane, Navi Mumbai and Raigad, apart from Mumbai.
 In the last 3 months the property rates in Andheri (E), Mumbai have already fallen by 6.3% from the peak price. During last 12 months however, the property prices have increased by 13.72%.
In Kandivli (E), the property prices have only increased by 3% during the last 3 months while in Goregaon, it  has fallen by 2.21%.
In Malad the property prices has come down by 1.48% and 1.65% in the last 3 and 6 months time frame, respectively. However, this is the region, where there was one of the highest appreciation of the prices in the last 12 months, 17.63% and a fall was inevitable.
In Borivali (East), an exactly opposite trend has been seen where the property prices rose one of the least in the Andheri--Dahisar zone, 4.08% in the last 12 months, while in the last 3 months it rose by 8.3%.
Having said this there is a shocker in Vikrohli, Mumbai, where the property prices rose by whooping 43.76% in the last 12 months, 21.78% in the last 6 months and 7.10 % in the last 3 months, clearly showing that the demand is tapering off.
In Bhandup too the same story is repeated with the property prices rising only 4.79% in the last 3 months as compared to 19.87% in the last 12 months.
In Mulund, the property prices have actually dipped by 2.28% in the last 3 months as compared to 13.39% rise in the last 12 months time frame.
In Prabhadevi (South Central Mumbai), the picture is no different, where the property prices have fallen by 3.58% as compared to a gain of 5.42% in the last 12 months.
Like Vikhroli, in Lower Parel (South Mumbai) there has been a gigantic increase of 19.75% in the last 3 months as compared to 7.8% in the last 12 months.
The same is true in case of Dadar (Shivaji Park), where the property prices have shot up by 18.51% during the last 3 months, as compared to 9.31% during the last 12 months.
One of the greatest fall in South Mumbai, is seen in Worli where the property prices have fallen by 16.85% during the last 3 months and 19.23% in the last 12 months. However, the fall was much sharp if we consider 6 months time frame, 21.96%.
So, this shows that the decline in Andheri (E) has already started and its adjoining areas are also not doing too well, which is expected to get accelerated in the monsoon season.
I think with the inflation and interest rate coming down, the property prices can only nosedive, in Mumbai, as there is over-supply.
In Mumbai,  generally on an average, 30% are genuine buyers who  needed homes to stay, the rest are for rents and unsold homes.....!!
Mumbai needs around 1 lakh new houses every year and only 55,000-60,000 are being built. There is a demand-supply mismatch and this is the reason prices are stabilising at higher levels. Hence, though the prices are not expected to crash, but is definitely not going anywhere as of now.
Therefore, it is better to sell off your property and wait till June, 2013, for the prices to come down further in select locations.