Thursday, February 14, 2013


Today, Indranil Pan of Kotak Mahindra Bank, said, that "Inflation figure at 6.62 percent has clearly surprised the market". But it is no surprise for me, as I could see through the data, which were probably Opaque to the RBI bosses and other inflation experts; who were crooning the same broken bridge theories everyday. This is what I wrote on 23 January, 2013, on this blog saying:
"WPI Inflation Should Now Come Down A Little Faster......I SEE 1st SIGNS OF WPI Inflation coming down a little more drastically.............The reasons, are the same old ones, but in a new pack....." 
Here is a proof of what I wrote on 23 January, 2013: CLICK HERE.
Problem is that if RBI governor rhymes with the economists, most of the time, especially when the data is stark, then it will be safe to assume that he is not at all "Intelligent"---though he might be studious. DO I NEED TO EXPLAIN THE REASONS FOR THE SAME AGAIN.....?? I have said time and again, ECONOMIC THEORIES ARE NOT LINEAR AND THEIR EFFICACY DEPENDS ON DIFFERENT SITUATIONS AND ESPECIALLY WHAT KIND OF FUTURE POLICIES THE GOVERNMENT IS GOING TO ENACT. We should never talk of "Inflation Projection" looking at the past data only--this is wrong concept. If noted economists do not understand this simple logic, but wants to hammer the same old, theories they studied during their college days, then THIS KIND OF FALL IN INFLATION WILL DEFINITELY SURPRISE THEM. However, after such a drastic fall, there cannot be a 2nd opinion that if the RBI do not want to "Commit Suicide", they should immediately cut the Repo Rates  (and even consider cutting CRR) further, before the Indian Economy Completely Sinks in the Arabian Sea, which is very near to the RBI headquarters in Mumbai.  But then......
Anyway, Crest Animation Studios Ltd hit the buyer freeze today in the opening trade. There is as such no problem in the company but some fools started to sell it---now lick your thumbs guys as the scrip races ahead.
There is probably some games going in U B Group companies, as it seems the Paid News Service of the media, is being used to manipulate the scrips. It is because the news is one sided---we do not know the response of the company nor did the media want to take the company's view. This makes us a little more suspicious  These kinds of clandestine exercises are done so that the scrips come down and the promoters/vested groups (even the bankers who knows the real story)  can enter again and make BIG. I think the same trick was applied few months back in the U B Group stocks and it is no secret that Dr.Vijay Mallay & Co, made hefty gains from U B Holdings Ltd and other scrips. Kingfisher Airlines Ltd fell to around Rs.7.05 only to become double in 3-4 months---which investment will give such returns? Same was seen in Suzlon Energy Ltd too, few days before the actual news of approval of CDR package came (especially interest rate waiver). Some stray news came in the media quoting an unknown bank official that the deal of CDR Package might not see the light of the day and as usual the blind investors, went  on a selling spree only to be fooled some days later, as Suzlon rallied to Rs.27 plus. If you remember, I repeatedly cautioned investors, regarding such HOAX news, but then some people tend to know more. 
There was a virtual sell-off in the market during the past few days, which has been masked by some gains in the indices. While the indices are being managed by the operators, the selling continues in the broader market. This has made many apprehensive about the nature/quality of forthcoming Union Budget. The small and mid cap space has been battered out of shape, as if there is no tomorrow. The government should immediately come out with schemes, to lift the stock market from doldrums and also bring in more retail investors. 
Now, when even the experts are finding difficulty in making money from the markets, it would be virtual suicidal for new comers to try in these tiring conditions; especially when there are wild swings in the scrips. Join my Paid Service or My Recommended Brokerage house, so that you remain in constant touch with me, and improve the gains in your Portfolio.