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Thursday, November 01, 2012

Interest rates set to fall, SBI may take lead
[When the policies of keeping Interest Rate high is not ushering  a drop in inflation, what is the use of pursuing it for years and kill the golden goose of growth?  RBI says it has a definite target of inflation management; now how can it compare inflation figures of the US, growing at around 2% with that of India whose worst figures are more than double and arrive at their own targets? I feel India should have inflation around 9-10% in normal conditions, considering the growth. Inflation would slowly come down when the infrastructure bottleneck and supply side factors are addressed. The government  has already taken such measures in the form of FDI in retail. Such high interest rates indirectly stops spending in the economy and at the same time creates infrastructure bottlenecks. This is a sort of ostrich like policy of breaking the nose of self to help the progress of other. Over the years RBI has turned itself into a self defeating organization, with bad policies and poor economic outlook. The arm--chair economists who proliferate various business channels, should understand that India is gradually progression towards DEFLATION; which is even more dangerous. RBI bosses, should come out of theories and act using their grey matters. It is unfortunate that these people are still holding their chairs and cannot be impeached. Giving autonomy to a constitutional chair, does not mean giving the power to misuse or abuse it. I sometimes feel RBI is acting as the 2nd fiddle of the opposition, which also would be happy if India's growth rate falls and the economy collapses. Our FM is trying to do, his best to cure the economy but with the step-motherly treatment from RBI, and also from his own man in the form of Dr.C Rangarajan, a former RBI governor, the things are becoming more and more difficult. It is time to remove Dr.C Rangarajan and bring in another neo--economist who can guide India in terms of crisis. Down with the old school of economists....!! The rally in the Indian bourses is more due to FIIs inflow and not due to retail investors, RBI should retrospect as to why Domestic investors are shying away from the capital markets!!].
MUMBAI: A day after lowering country's growth forecast to 5.8 per cent, the Reserve Bank today said it will step in if economic expansion falls below the current levels of 5.5 per cent.
RBI also expressed the hope that the economy will move up from the current quarter.
"We will certainly respond if growth moderates (from the present level), but that is unlikely as per our projections. We expect growth to inch up from here onwards," RBI Governor D Subbarao said to a particular query whether RBI will intervene if growth falls below the current level of 5.5 per cent.
He was answering questions during the customary post-policy conference call with economists and analysts.
The economy grew by 5.5 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal, a tad better than 5.3 per cent it had reported in last quarter of the previous fiscal.
Yesterday, RBI had lowered its growth projection to 5.8 per cent from 6.5 per cent while unveiling the half-yearly monetary policy.
RBI also kept interest rates unchanged, disappointing Finance Minister P Chidmabaram, industry and markets.
In the April policy, the RBI had cut the GDP forecast to 6.5 per cent from the 7.1 per cent it had predicted earlier.
The Governor while noting the steep fall in growth, said in the policy document, that inflation fighting is still the core objective of the monetary policy, and cited high fiscal and current account deficits as the reasons for elevated price index, thus neglecting the fiscal consolidation road map the finance minister unveiled a day before the policy.
Accordingly, he also increased the year-end inflation target to 7.5 per cent, from 7 per cent, the second upward projection this year.
To another question whether there is a threshold level of growth beyond which RBI will take rate actions, Subbarao said there is no threshold for the central bank when it comes to GDP growth.
"First, on the threshold growth level, we don't have any threshold growth level. But we will certainly respond should growth moderates much more than we now expect. But, that is unlikely according to our current assessment.
"And you will note the GDP growth projection for the full year is 5.8 per cent. On an average, growth in the remaining three quarters have to be higher of 5.5 per cent. We expect growth to inch up from here onwards," the Governor said.
Courtesy: Times of India