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Friday, May 11, 2012

Why should RBI go for an immediate cut in the interest rate??!! 
Dr.Subir Gokarn should remove the prefix doctor from his name--he does not deserve that.......He is a typical copy book unattractive economist...He should take lessons from Dr.Kaushik Basu....!!
One is out there to destroy the Indian Railways and another one, Indian Economy: A Lethal combination??!!
The government of today is run by few jokers and back-benchers of schools and colleges, except may be few drops of "Deshi-ghee" here and there. Therefore, we fail to find any major spark in the government's policies and actions, leave alone, any sort of out of out-of-the-box-solutions to the burning problems of the day. 
This RBI team is more or less of mediocre breed, who finds hard to think, anything outside their economic lessons they received in schools/colleges/Universities. But then the detractors say, the RBI has very little room to showcase its real potential, as it has to dance to the rhythm of the government's stick and carrot policy--a very sad case indeed. 
The government instead of coming up with some form of reforms to bolster the economic muscles, is after one business house to another, harassing, taxing and humiliating (and what not) them, at the point of a gun....and now the new mantra is government's "Gaar, Gaar, Gaar" on GAAR!! 
When the world is sinking and Indian economy going to dogs our old and haggard, Finance Minister, having roots in a village (or very small town) in West Bengal, has this "scare-crow" device, for the FIIs. I have seen blogospheres and the social networking web sites filled with excerpts relating him, from the Shah Commission's report on the excesses committed by him during the Emergency to other major issues. The finding of the L. P. Singh Committee which processed the report shows Dr.Pranab Mukherjee, who was then the Minister of State for Finance, "in a poor, and indeed, sadistic, light, as a sidekick of Sanjay Gandhi" (in the words of B. S. Raghavan)--unfortunately he is now the Finance Minister, kicking and punching, all the way, like his earlier shadow.
Now, some groups are also speaking of elevating him to the post of President..........Pooooooooooh!! So, you can understand why his attitude is so arrogant and dictatorial, even at the ripe age of 76 years.
Everything has a time of arrival and departure, but then our Finance Minister, whom many of his pet journalists have already dubbed as "Trouble Shooter and a person of all seasons", is silent on the (mis)--deeds or (mis)-endeavours of the "L'enfant terrible" (Terrible child) during the last couple of  years as a Finance Minister.
He is now actually a trouble maker for the innocent investors and companies, who see the value of their shares plummet, before their eyes, with the Finance Minister busy in vote bank politics. When we should be actually talking of growth, we are talking of strict control of inflation; when we should be talking of cutting taxes, we are actually talking of controlling the falling INR; when we should be giving incentives to the wind energy sector, his budget proposals are bent on removing all the vestiges of it: it is all mess here due his incompetent policies in the last couple of  years. And yes, one more thing, India is after all being run by some lawyers and advocates, whose demonic minds are ruining the country and the economy. 
Yes, if we draw parallel with the US, we find a lawyer in Barrack Hussein Obama, but then they have a pool of economists from whom the government takes regular advices and they are more or less mutually exclusive. In India if tomorrow, Dr.Kaushik Basu, says something, which goes against the government's wishes, he could be spanked on the bottom and made to chew his own words, lock, stock and barrel, until he starts crooning the same "rubber-stamped' song of the government---India is now virtually having a dictatorship, with a fancy name "DEMOCRACY"....Huh!! The shameless and toothless, politicians have looted India, through scam after scam. They have probably not left even the defense department as well, as we hear of investigations in the media, of one such swindling of government money...... 
Recently, our lady President and his near and dear ones made merry with poor Tax Payers money, in the form of foreign trips. Now her luxurious bungalow continues to get built in Pune, while the poor "Army Jawans" live in appalling conditions. This is the same President whom Shiv Sena supported during the time of elections (fully aware of her chequered past and simply on the emotive issue of "Marathi Manus") and probably (along with the BJP) continues to give passive support to these kinds of clandestine activities. Really a point to ponder!! When ghost enters the medicine, then what is the remedy to remove the ghost??!!
While, this circus continues, the brilliant academician and an  economist, Dr.Manmohan Singh is made a captive among these bunch of crooks and thugs, unable to flutter his wings to show the new direction---yes they were probably clipped long back by the deputies of a former "London-bar-maid". This former, "London-waitress", probably might not have ever thought of becoming a billionaire so easily, coming from a middle-class nondescript town in Italy. Now his son-in-law, who was earlier a bell-metal seller, is now one of the fastest growing young Billionaires in India. Courtesy: His famous mother-in-law.
So, what we have today of India is a mere skeleton, of the glorious days of NDA rule, knee dip in Fiscal deficits and other terminal illness. Now those who have voted this conglomeration might be thinking, what a mistake we have done!!
Now, in this scenario, what is needed immediately is to bring about a growth, which could lighten up the hopes of new jobs to the people and help the industry garner profit. In a tight liquidity scenario, most of the captains of India has stopped its capex and their margins are falling, leading to the trimming of employees and stagnation of the salaries. Meanwhile, the red-tapism and other regulatory problems, are on the verge of pulverizing the India Inc.
We are suffering from food inflation, but the government says, "NO cheap loan to farmers", as a results, we have shortage....
Moreover, rising temperatures and inadequate water supply result in shrinking fruit and vegetable production during summer months, and storing farm produce for long periods in the hot and humid climate adds to difficulties. So, we need investments in the form of making of cold storages--for that business needs cheap loan to keep the prices under control, but alas the government says, "Either you take at high interest rate, or buzz off"--we need to stamp out demand through high interest rate.....As a result, the cost of making a cold storage shoots up. Now when the cost is high the businessman will charge higher, rent, so this increases the price of fruits and vegetables to be kept there---this raises food inflation. When the food inflation shoots up, the RBI and the government talks tough on raising interest rate or the government goes for another round of monetary tightening and then food prices increases again....and the vicious cycle continues....and then the government thinks of starving all.......So, is this a solution to curb inflation? Laughable, isn't it?
The point to be noted her is that this factor, along with ever-increasing demand for food from the country's growing 1.2 billion population, is leading to shortages, which needs to be addressed by increasing supply, and NOT by artificially squeezing demand. Moreover, food is consumed in all parts of India, so we need investments in roads and infrastructure so that it reaches fast. But then government says, NO cheap loans to infrastructure companies, as a result, the projects become unviable, at the tender price.....this leads to more transportation bottlenecks, leading to uneven  shortages of food articles, leading to inflation.....and this shifts to other sectors as well--steel, cement, auto ancillary, and you name it........IT IS ALL MESS OUT HERE.....
......What kind of economies is this other than following the book....??!! 
The direct effect of this is what we have seen today in the recent IIP numbers, after which the government instead of feeling embarrassed is probably busy in giving lip service to the people. 
The moot point is that keeping high interest rate for such a long time is taking a toll on our economy and it is time that the government goes for immediate cut in the same. Unless, the loans are cheaper how can we think of getting cheaper products, as this has a cascading effect on the  other parts of the economy as well.........!!! 
At end I would again reiterate that we need to have a finance minister, who is well versed with the current set of economic problems and has solutions for majority of them. The current Finance Minister's body language, shows he is nervous and confused. When an army general is in a state of utter confusion can he win any war??!! Can we solve the economic problems of a country in 2012, with the tools of 1930??!!
God help India and Indians......let India be free of this misrule of UPA and its allies. 
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