MARKET MANTRA
Excepts of my morning inputs to the Paid Groups
Market witnessed nerve wrecking volatility on the closing hours on Friday, due to some technical error while punching some orders, according to some media reports. Anyway, on last Friday, Nifty moved range bound between 5310 and 5335 for first half. Sudden selling in second half dragged down Nifty to a low of 5245 within half an hour of trade. However, last hour buying pulled it back to 5300, finally giving a close at 5290.
A rally can be expected to 5500 level. Long positions may be initiated with a stop of 5XXX (Paid Service Members).
Important Chartial Inferences:
(i) The 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 20-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) have now shifted to 5135 and 5300, respectively.
(ii) The '20-Week EMA' is placed at 5200 level, indicating it to be a strong level for the short term..
(iii) We are witnessing a break out from the 'Downward Sloping Trend Line' resistance around 5300 level.
A rally can be expected to 5500 level. Long positions may be initiated with a stop of 5XXX (Paid Service Members).
Important Chartial Inferences:
(i) The 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 20-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) have now shifted to 5135 and 5300, respectively.
(ii) The '20-Week EMA' is placed at 5200 level, indicating it to be a strong level for the short term..
(iii) We are witnessing a break out from the 'Downward Sloping Trend Line' resistance around 5300 level.
(iv) In Index Futures FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs.1,626 Cr with an open interest increase of around Rs.1,796.69 Cr as compared to net selling to the tune of Rs. 2,066 Cr with an open interest increase of around Rs.205.89 Cr as of the previous trading week: This indicates Long Build Up in Index Futures by FIIs.
(v) Nifty Futures open interest saw an increase of around
13.96% and Nifty Futures saw an increase of around 1.55%: This indicates Long Build Up in Nifty.
(vi) India VIX saw a decrease of around 11.69%: This indicates positiveness for the market.
13.96% and Nifty Futures saw an increase of around 1.55%: This indicates Long Build Up in Nifty.
(vi) India VIX saw a decrease of around 11.69%: This indicates positiveness for the market.
(vii) The PCR for Nifty based on open interest is up at 1.14 as compared to 1.09: This indicates positiveness for the market.
(viii) High put option open interest build up of around 6.9 mn and 6.5 mn is seen at 5200 and 5100 strikes respectively: This indicates that they will act as strong supports.
(ix) High call option open interest build up of around 6.6 mn and 5.2 mn is seen at 5400 and 5500 strikes respectively: This indicates that that they will act as strong resistances.
Thus, if Nifty sustains above the weekly high of 5343 on the back of strong volumes, then we are likely to witness enhanced buying interest among market participants in the coming days upto 5370-5400-5440. Moreover, the '200-day SMA' level of 5135 holds key support in coming trading sessions. A violation of this swing low may reinforce the selling pressure and then markets are likely to drift towards the next support levels of 5075- 5000--4950.
In another news: India's forex reserves declined by $1.47 bn to $292.9 bn for the week ended April 6, the lowest level in more than 2-months, largely due to suspected sale of dollars by RBI to curb the slide in value of rupee.
The US markets closed well in the green last week, though gains were eroded in the late trade on the back of rising concerns on Spanish bond yields. The Spanish bond yields surpassed comfort levels of 6% indicating debt issues in Spain. It is expected by analysts that the US markets will track cues from EU and any rise in concern in EU will make global markets jittery.
Fundamentally speaking, the range bound activity will be witnessed in our markets as stock specific action on the back of earnings continue. Global markets and global data especially Chinese PMI expected to come in lower for straight 6th month.
Buy Alok Industries Ltd at Rs.19.50, T--Rs.22, SL--Rs.17. The Promoter Jiwrajka Associates raised stake in the company to 4.3% from 4.1% by acquiring 1.3 mln shares between Tuesday and Thursday.
Also, the investors will be looking for the results of TCS Ltd after RIL and Infosys. TCS Ltd is all set to touch record headcount of 300,000 by the end of 2012-13, which may make the company the world's second largest information technology company in terms of headcount.
On the other hand, many brokerages have turned positive on Coal India Ltd and Escorts Ltd. Keep an eye on both these counters. Also, since the automobile sector is doing well, GATI Ltd should also do well. Those who have not taken position in Suzlon Ltd and HINDALCO Industries Ltd should take positions before both of them shoot up. Today, I have just spoken with sources in Suzlon Energy Ltd in the morning and I have found there is nothing wrong in the company as of now, as the company continues to build up HUGE order positions. When I spoke about the brokerage house Prabhudas Lilladher coming out with its earnings estimates on Suzlon Energy for March FY12, according to which company's Q4FY12 sales are likely to go up by 8% at Rs 7,961 crore, Year-on-Year (YoY) basis while, the company's net profit is seen down 86.8% at Rs.56.9 crore, YoY--they simply said, "Don't go by the rumours, but only by the company's results which will be declared shortly. The company is regularly getting orders from all over the world and its overseas subsidiary would be money spinner coming forward". The sources were actually surprised as to how the brokerage house could come up with such a report? SEBI should take note of this case and take actions action those who are going in for synchronized SELLING of the shares in the Indian bourses, following this report. But, like every-time, I feel this time also SEBI might act, when the horse has already bolted the door. The manipulative trading is eating away the charm of the Indian bourses, as the regulators looks on and on without any timely action. When there is as such no negative news in the company and the company has clearly mentioned how it would solve the FCCB issue on its website and through various agencies, then who is doing selling of the shares of the company and on what pretext??!! Blind eye of the regulators in this direction could problems for the small investors/minority hareholders of the Suzlon Ltd. Hence, I urge upon the authorities to act now to stop synchronized selling of the shares of Suzlon Energy Ltd.
In another news: India's forex reserves declined by $1.47 bn to $292.9 bn for the week ended April 6, the lowest level in more than 2-months, largely due to suspected sale of dollars by RBI to curb the slide in value of rupee.
The US markets closed well in the green last week, though gains were eroded in the late trade on the back of rising concerns on Spanish bond yields. The Spanish bond yields surpassed comfort levels of 6% indicating debt issues in Spain. It is expected by analysts that the US markets will track cues from EU and any rise in concern in EU will make global markets jittery.
Fundamentally speaking, the range bound activity will be witnessed in our markets as stock specific action on the back of earnings continue. Global markets and global data especially Chinese PMI expected to come in lower for straight 6th month.
Buy Alok Industries Ltd at Rs.19.50, T--Rs.22, SL--Rs.17. The Promoter Jiwrajka Associates raised stake in the company to 4.3% from 4.1% by acquiring 1.3 mln shares between Tuesday and Thursday.
Also, the investors will be looking for the results of TCS Ltd after RIL and Infosys. TCS Ltd is all set to touch record headcount of 300,000 by the end of 2012-13, which may make the company the world's second largest information technology company in terms of headcount.
On the other hand, many brokerages have turned positive on Coal India Ltd and Escorts Ltd. Keep an eye on both these counters. Also, since the automobile sector is doing well, GATI Ltd should also do well. Those who have not taken position in Suzlon Ltd and HINDALCO Industries Ltd should take positions before both of them shoot up. Today, I have just spoken with sources in Suzlon Energy Ltd in the morning and I have found there is nothing wrong in the company as of now, as the company continues to build up HUGE order positions. When I spoke about the brokerage house Prabhudas Lilladher coming out with its earnings estimates on Suzlon Energy for March FY12, according to which company's Q4FY12 sales are likely to go up by 8% at Rs 7,961 crore, Year-on-Year (YoY) basis while, the company's net profit is seen down 86.8% at Rs.56.9 crore, YoY--they simply said, "Don't go by the rumours, but only by the company's results which will be declared shortly. The company is regularly getting orders from all over the world and its overseas subsidiary would be money spinner coming forward". The sources were actually surprised as to how the brokerage house could come up with such a report? SEBI should take note of this case and take actions action those who are going in for synchronized SELLING of the shares in the Indian bourses, following this report. But, like every-time, I feel this time also SEBI might act, when the horse has already bolted the door. The manipulative trading is eating away the charm of the Indian bourses, as the regulators looks on and on without any timely action. When there is as such no negative news in the company and the company has clearly mentioned how it would solve the FCCB issue on its website and through various agencies, then who is doing selling of the shares of the company and on what pretext??!! Blind eye of the regulators in this direction could problems for the small investors/minority hareholders of the Suzlon Ltd. Hence, I urge upon the authorities to act now to stop synchronized selling of the shares of Suzlon Energy Ltd.
Buy HDFC Bank Ltd at around Rs.550, T--Rs.670, SL_-Rs.475. HDFC Bank's Q4 net up 30.4% at Rs.14.53 bn driven by higher Net income and lower provisioning– Results above expectations, and hence many brokerage houses have upgraded it to BUY.
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