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Wednesday, April 04, 2012

Bank Nifty: Bullish undertone persists
If the FM is talking of growth, he is indirectly talking of bullishness of the banking sector. Now with the inflation moderating, the RBI might cut rates in the next policy meet. 
Another point worth noting is that, in the budget 2012-13, there was an increase in basic customs duty on standard gold bars; gold coins of purity exceeding 99.5% and platinum from 2% to 4% and on non-standard gold from 5% to 10%--this might free the money from this sector which could flow to banks/share markets; in other words, the money is expected to flow, to both the bank fixed deposits (FDs) and equity markets, after this innovative move of plugging CAD. 
So, I am speculating, that in future the inflow of deposits could be enormous because "safe" (and speculative) money could be coming out of gold and real estate to the banks--I think the real estate sector is in a bubble state, at least in Mumbai and its suburbs. Also, any cut in interest rate is expected to spike loan growth too......
Moreover, any further CRR cut would give them further room to maneuver. And, lastly the good point is that there would not be any further repo/reverse-repo hikes, giving some stability the NIMs. Therefore, buy Bank Nifty before it shoots past.
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