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Thursday, March 29, 2012

In case of Nifty, some of the momentum oscillators like stochastics are in the oversold territory and indicate that a sharp upside is possible from here on in the short term.
Today's call to the Paid Service Members: (i) Intraday, buy Rajesh Exports at Rs.123-125 (Lower), T--Rs.129-136, SL-Rs.121, reached its target, as the it reached Rs.132.50. The recommendation was anchored on the following news: Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee may reconsider budget proposal for charging excise duty on unbranded jewellery.
(ii) Buy Reliance Industries Ltd at Rs.728, T-Rs.145-160, SL--Rs.120. This recommendation was anchored on the following news: The RIL has reorganized its finance operations under two chief financial officers for the first time.
NEW DELHI: The 50-share Nifty index slipped to its 2-month low on Thursday, breaking key technical support levels of 5150 on weak global cues.
"Despite Nifty momentarily breaching the 5150 mark on an intra-day basis today, the outlook for Nifty remains positive. Even if Nifty closes below the 5150 mark, the downside appears limited to 2-3%," said Vinit Pagaria, VP - Investment Strategies, Microsec Capital Ltd
Nifty has been holding on to the crucial support band of 5150-5170 since the last few days. It tested a low of 5174.90 on Monday, 5184.65 on Tuesday and 5169.60 on Wednesday.
The 50-share Nifty index was down 0.9 percent at 12:40 hrs, breaking below the 200-day moving average for the first time since Feb. 1.
Some of the momentum oscillators like stochastics are in the oversold territory and indicate that a sharp upside is possible from here on in the short term.
"We continue to believe that traders should go long between 5000 and 5250 with upside targets of 5400, 5630 and finally 5900," added Vinit.
Microsec Capital advises traders to write Nifty April Put options of strike 5100 and strike 5200.
According to analysts, expiry of March derivatives contracts today and the end of the fiscal year at the end of the week is also adding to the volatility.
"Beginning today, it is a new settlement for the FIIs in the sense that whatever they buy now will go into the new financial year. In case FIIs do press the gas on the downside, the domestic market as well as the retail investors may not be able to absorb the selling pressure," said VK Sharma, Head of Business, Private Broking & Wealth Management, HDFC Securities.
"Chances are the markets would crash and we might see Nifty going down to levels below 5000," added VK Sharma.
National Stock Exchange data showed provisional net purchases of Rs 148 cr ($29.15 million) on Thursday, bringing total net sales for the week to about $39 million.
According to dealers, the near-term trend has turned bearish and the market is likely to take cues from the Reserve Bank of India's policy review meet and corporate earnings for direction.
"For next one to two months we expect markets to remain range bound on the back of global flows where there is a risk on trade happening. Fundamentally, there are challenges on the horizon, be it in the form of the huge current account deficit or upcoming earning season," said Manish Kumar, CIO & EVP, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance.
The high crude oil prices and weakening rupee has been also weighing on sentiments and if the government fails to hike fuel prices it will put further strain on the fiscal deficit.
According to Dodge O Dorland, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer, Landor & Fuest Capital Managers, the price of oil is going to be one of the most major determinants of what happens in the markets.
Fears of the government implementing some proposals of General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) to tax foreign institutional investors may also have weakened the market sentiment.
However, investors in many companies still have reason to cheer as these stocks have significantly outperformed the broader market since the Budget.
These are companies in which FIIs do not hold any stakes or own insignificant number of shares - a feature that possibly makes them less vulnerable to risk of major FII-selling if tax proposals are implemented under GAAR.
Since March 16, shares of over 100 such companies have risen between 10% and 56% as against 2.4% fall in the Sensex. The list mostly includes medium and small-cap companies across sectors. In a few cases, the share prices have been driven by company-specific developments.