WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

[Updated]

Let me put below the Performance of some of my Recently Recommended Counters:

1. Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd recommended at around Rs.14, a couple of weeks backs closed at Rs.17.92.

2. DCB Ltd recommended around Rs.14, some weeks touched Rs.26.50.

3. Deccan Chronicle Ltd recommended around Rs.37.85 and Rs.29, touched Rs.55.65, in less than 45 days. The stock reached its targets.

4. Hanung Toys and Textiles Ltd recommended around Rs.24.5, touched Rs.39.85 on the last trading day.

5. HDIL Ltd recommended around Rs.80, reached the first target of Rs.120 and Suzlon Ltd upgraded to buy at Rs.42, crossed Rs.55 in 7 days.

6. Kolte Patil Developers Ltd recommended around Rs.20, a couple of weeks back touched Rs.26.90 on the last trading day.

7. BSEL Infrastructure Realty Ltd recommended around Rs.9.5--Rs.10, is continuously hitting buyer freezes after being recommended.

8. Vikash Metal and Power Ltd recommended around Rs.6 and Rs.10, is continuously hitting buyer freezes.

9. Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd recommended around Rs.2.20, a couple of weeks back on some positive news is hitting continuous buyer freezes.

10. Unitech Ltd recommended around Rs.26 and Rs.27, touched Rs.42, on the last trading day. When I recommended the scrip most of the analysts came heavily against me. 11. Reliance Industrial Infrastructure Ltd recommended on last Monday at Rs.303, touched Rs.880 before cooling down a bit. I have given my take on the company on the Yahoo Group SumanSpeaks. Those who are members of this group might have already read it. If you remember the Dalal Street Journal recommended the scrip around Rs.900 for a target of Rs.1150, when the Reliance Industries Ltd did not have the K G Basin Gas story. The stock has a long way to go....

12. Reliance Communications Ltd recommended around Rs.180, a couple of weeks back touched Rs.221 on the last trading day.

13. Reliance Industries Ltd recommended around Rs.1100 here in this blog, a day after Kotak Securities Ltd came out with the sell report on the company touched Rs.1765 on the last trading day, giving more than 50% return in less than 30 days. Is it not amazing??!!

14. Thermax Ltd recommended at Rs.157, touched Rs.223, on the last trading day. The stock reached its first target. Report on the company at:www.sumanspeaksplus.blogspot.com.

15. Nu Tek India Ltd recommended at Rs.33 and Rs.27, touched Rs.35.85 yesterday.

16. XL Telecom and Energy Ltd recommended at around Rs.29 and Rs.32, crossed Rs.39 on the last trading day. The stock which was once looking cheap around Rs.550, is trading at the price of penny or is looking dirt cheap.

17. U B Engineering Ltd recommended at around Rs.35, freezed at Rs.46.25, on the last trading day. It is a Vijay Mallya Group Company.

18. Gulf Oil Corporation Ltd recommended at Rs.27.90 touched Rs.36.05 on the last trading day. The stock has a wonderful real estate story.

19. Satyam Computer Services Ltd though not recommended to anyone, but I bought the stock at Rs.18.5 to get handsome return in less than 30 days, when it touched Rs.60.

20. Tata Steel Ltd recommended at Rs.150, some weeks back touched Rs.265.90 on the last trading day.....and so on......

Here are few more scrips on which some inputs are given:

1. Cochin Mineral and Rutiles Ltd: It is engaged in the production of Synthetic Rutile which finds application as R/M for the Paint and Pigment Inds. Its By-products are Ferric Chloride which is used as a cleaning agent and Ferrous Chloride used in affluent treatment. Company is 100% E.O.U. Hence more the rupee depreciates the more revenues its gets. One of the catch point is that: Cochin Mineral and Rutiles Ltd has already invested Rs.13.61 crs. in backward integration project which itself works out to Rs. 17.4 per share. It means, investors are getting core business of the company at around Rs. 12 per share, which looks a little absurd. But the Real catch point is the Kerala Government's clearance for mining?? Did it get..?? What are the targets for this multi-bagger??!! This portion for the Paid Groups. Coming up.......

2. Valecha Engineering Ltd (BSE Code: 532389): VALECHA Engineering which was trading at Rs.333 in January, 2006, will be one of the prime beneficiaries of the infrastructure boom in the country. A good track record of executing infrastructure projects, healthy order-book and imminent order flows from the Central and State governments in the road segment provide some visibility to this small-cap stock. Valecha Engineering is an infrastructure company focused mainly on road and highway development work and foundation projects with a professional management and latest state of art machinery in place. It is poised for rapid growth in the coming months due to attention being given towards infrastructure sector by successive central and state governments. The company in the last year gave Bonus Shares in the proportion of 1:2 (One new fully paid equity share of Rs.10 each for every Two equity shares of Rs.10 each).

Valecha Engineering Ltd recently informed that the Company bagged new projects worth Rs 136.00 crores approximately which includes Road Resurfacing of Runway at Srinagar worth Rs.71.00 crores approximately and construction of Under pass at Rotary near Domestic Airport along road connecting to DWARKA at Delhi worth Rs 65.00 crores. Company's Middle - East operations are also progressing well and the Company has formed a Wholly Owned Subsidiary in the name of - Valecha International FZE at Sharjah at UAE......

3. Megasoft Ltd: Megasoft is a trans-national Intellectual Property driven, product-based technology company. Established in 1994 in Virginia USA & Listed in Mumbai Stock Exchange, Megasoft, a public listed company operates out of offices spanning Europe, Asia and America.

Megasoft is currently focusing on Telecom as thrust area given its strong management and delivery capabilities in these industry domains.

XIUS-bcgi, the telecom division of Megasoft is a leading global provider of Advanced Roaming, OSS and Convergent Service Delivery Infrastructure solutions to Wireless & Wireline Network Operators and Service Providers. Strong partnerships with global leaders like HP, Teleglobe and TNZI have given XIUS-bcgi the reach and credibility to build a customer base spanning across Asia, Americas, Europe and the Middle East with over 65 commercial installations to its credit till date.

Catch Points: (i) In the year 2008, the company faced cash flow constraints due to the global liquidity crisis, difficulty in collecting payments from customers and incurrence of higher than expected integration and financing cost relating to the acquisition of bcgi. This resulted in delayed statutory payments, extension of FCCB redemption, etc. To improve the cash flows, the company has initiated several cost cutting measures and sale of some of the assets. The company is also putting additional focus on receivable collections and has restructured itself into a cash flow centric organisation.

(ii) The Company issued / allotted 8,000 1.5% Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds ("FCCB") of USD 1,000 each on September 16, 2005 aggregating to USD 8 million and are convertible into equity shares on or before September 17, 2008 at conversion price of Rs.115 per equity share. FCCB have been listed on Luxembourg Stock Exchange on September 22, 2005.

FCCB aggregating to USD 6 million have been converted into equity shares during 2006 on exercise of the conversion option.FCCB aggregating to USD 2 million due for redemption on September 17, 2008 is being negotiated for extension of time for a period of up to one year with the lendor with revised terms, subject to statutory approvals. The 9th Annual General Meeting ("AGM") of the company for the financial year ended December 31, 2008 is scheduled to be held on June 27, 2009.

(iii) The financial results of both standalone and consolidated for the previous financial year include the business performance of VisualSoft Technologies Limited w.e.f. 1 October 2006, consequent to the amalgamation.

(iv) The company made a strategic investment of US$ 3,000,000 in Keystone Wireless, LLC, USA during June 2007 as 5% stakeholder. Keystone is a mobile telecom service provider based out of the United States.

During August 2007, the company made an open offer through Tea Party Acquisition Corp., USA, (TPAC) a wholly owned subsidiary established as a special purpose vehicle for acquisition of Boston Communications Group, Inc. (BCGI), a Nasdaq listed company. The shareholders of BCGI were offered US$ 3.60 per share as the offer price. The acquisition process was completed on 30 August 2007. BCGI became a wholly-owned subsidiary of your company from that date.

(v) With the XIUS-bcgi Mobile Services Platform, MVNOs, MVNEs, new entrants and next-generation providers can create a complete end-to-end infrastructure solution for their mobile business.

Alternatively, they choose specific services of the platform that can easily integrate with their existing infrastructure and third-party applications. XIUS-bcgi Mobile Services Platform simultaneously supports a variety of operational models and handles multiple heterogeneous wireless technologies. Unrestricted by a single network, XIUS-bcgi's infrastructure is adaptable to GSM, CDMA, 3G, VoIP, IMS and WLAN.As per studies conducted, revenue potential for the MVNO infrastructure market, in the US Et Europe alone, would be US$ 15.2 billion by 2010. By 2011, Europe is set to dominate the MVNO marketplace by an estimated forecast of 44% market share (with an estimated 59.2 million subscriber base) due to opening up in Spain, France and Eastern Europe. By 2011, the estimated MVNO subscriber base in Americas is set to be 34.3 million, 37.7 million in Asia Pacific, 1.8 million in Middle East Et Africa.

MVNO model is the most optimal for emerging markets; it extends the reach of the network without fully cannibalising the existing subscriber base. Jordan and Oman look to be the first countries in the Middle East to open up to MVNOs. Further study indicates that the Middle East is ripe for next generation MVNOs. India and Nigeria, on the other hand, may see more success from cost-driven models.

(vi) XIUS-bcgi is a leading provider of real-time billing solutions that enable prepaid and hybrid wireless service. The realtime rating, call processing, and subscriber management capabilities of XIUS-bcgi's prepaid platform have helped drive the growth of profitable prepaid service throughout the world. By enabling prepaid services, XIUS-bcgi is helping operators in mature and developing markets reach new segments and profitably extend service to new regions.

In today's mobile arena, prepaid programs are the fastest growing segment in the wireless industry. About 60% of the world's 1.1 billion mobile subscribers prepay their wireless service. Furthermore, according to a global mobile prepaid strategies and forecasts report, 2010 will witness 1.5 billion prepaid mobile phone customers, generating over US$ 240 billion per year in revenue.

The demand for mobile payments will grow in the next 5 years from now, to enable the processing of nearly US$ 22 billion worth of payment transactions by 2011.

(vii) The company has a strong intellectual property portfolio and is a forerunner in adopting new technologies for its innovation and co-creation strategies. The company has now moved to a managed services model from the License sale of revenues. By this change in the Revenue model, the company has a substantial visibility of its revenues for the near future.

(viii) 'XIUS' combined with 'bcgi' gives a unique brand positioning with 'bcgi' being a US centric brand and 'XIUS' having brand recognition in the rest of the world. The Telecom division caters to the Telecom operators with total telecom solutions having a whole gamut of products wherein the customers are able to pick and choose from the products bouquet or choose a comprehensive solution.

(xi) With its R&D focus, the company has gained substantial expertise in building products and Product Life Cycle management space. The company has a substantial infrastructure for its back office operations at Hyderabad, India.

(x) The company is largely dependent on the American market for a substantial part of its revenues. Any depreciation in the currency parity with US Dollar would positively affect the company's' revenues stated in INR. However, the company has adopted a hedging policy for a part of its exposure to USD and also the company is having a natural hedge with most of the payments being incurred in the US itself.

The Telecom market world wide is in an accelerated growth mode with the mobile phone being used as an extended identity of the subscriber. Mobile phones are increasingly being used for data and mails as compared for voice calls. The Large telecom operators are increasingly focusing on innovative services for its subscribers and the company is geared to contribute in this endeavour.Increasing Global outsourcing trends gives an advantage to the company with its excellent infrastructure and PLM expertise.

Megasoft Ltd perceives the market opportunities to be favourably inclined to its current offerings and strategies. With the US markets showing growth again after that catastrophe. The emphasis now globally is on cost reduction. Thus, Megasoft is rightly positioned as a niche player with a strong brand value in the telecom products segment and a number one player in the ADMS and PLM space. With the increasing focus on innovative technology solutions and a strong R&D back ground along with product development expertise, Megasoft is ready for exploiting this unparallel opportunity to expand and grow in these areas as a strong entity.

Concern:

(i) Growth of Megasoft is dependant on the telecom industry. Any vagaries in the telecom business environment will influence the performance of the company. The Telecom Industry has a historical practice of extended sales cycle and high debtors' position. This may be detrimental to cash flows of the company.

(ii) Megasoft Ltd has substantial exposure to foreign exchange related risks because of earnings denominated in foreign currency arising from export of software. Majority of the company's revenues are US dollar (USD) denominated and hence appreciation of Rupee (INR) vis-a-vis the USD can put downward pressure on revenues and margins. The company hedges its forex exposure through forward contracts. The company also has a natural hedge as most of its expenditure is in the US Dollar.

4. Indowind Energy Ltd: Indowind Energy Limited develops wind farms for sale, manages the wind assets, and generates Green Power for sale to utilities and corporates. It carries out turnkey implementation of Wind Power Projects, from concept to commissioning.

It also provides, Wind Asset Management Solution for installed assets, including operations, billing, collection of revenue to project customers, supply of Green Power to Customers, CERs (Carbon Credit) Sales and Trading.

INDIAN POWER SCENARIO: The Government of India and various state Governments have announced proactive policies to augment the Power Generation capacities which is encouraging. The National Electricity Policy (NEP) stipulates power for all by 2012 and annual per capita consumption of electricity to rise to 1000 units from the present level of 631 units.

To fulfil the objectives of the NEP, a capacity addition of 78,577 MW has been proposed for the 11th plan. This capacity addition is expected to provide a growth of 9.5 % to the power sector. The all India installed power generation capacity as on January 2008 was 141080 MW comprising of 90896 MW thermal, 35208 MW hydro, 4120 MW nuclear and 10856 MW Renewable Energy Sources.

The Demand Supply position in the Indian Power Sector still has a Peak Shortage of 16217 MW capacity provides an excellent opportunity for IPP’s to increase their market share. As of July 2008 the installed capacity of wind power in India was 8,696 MW, which accounts for 6% of India’s total installed power capacity, it generates only 1.6% of the country’s power. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) has fixed a capacity addition target of 10,500 MW for Wind Power between 2007-12.

According to the sources close to me, Indowind Energy is confident of tapping the above potential and play a vital role in the Renewable Energy Space. The fundamentals of the company are better placed than Suzlon Ltd.

The December, 2008 quarter results are excellent, considering the world-wide downturn. In such tiring circumstances, the company's net profit for Q3FY09, actually increased to Rs.1.53 Cr as against Rs.1.38 Cr in Q3FY8.

Catch Points:

(i) Company is planning to set up 100 more Wind Energy generation mills.

(ii) The company is eyeing about Rs.12-14 cr, profit after tax by June '09. It has completed the projects which it promised in the last year in time and the projects have started giving good revenues.

(iii) The company has long term sell agreements with companies. Most of them are tied up for a long term, twenty-year and thirty years horizon,hence it has have enough comfortable position to sell whatever it will be producing. Even on the new project side, it is growing steadily, even in market global slowdown---even the banks have been talking with it for the further expansion funding and things like that.

(iv) The company has done a project in Karnataka which is 9 megawatt. In Tamilnadu it added about few projects in the last one year and recently it has added about 2 megawatt of power which has already gone for commissioning. It is the first company which has got the UNFCCC accreditation carbon credit and carbon credit processing is going on on the newly set up and existing projects.

Now another 9 megawatt is coming up in Karnataka for which it got a sanction for about Rs.76 crore loan and the company is trying to complete that as early as possible.

The company is on a high growth trajectory. Interesting point to note is that the stock is trading below its offer price (IPO) of Rs.55-65, per share. From a meagre turnover of around Rs.24 Cr in FY07, the turnover for the nine months ending FY09 has already touched, Rs.30.86 Cr. The price to book value is only 0.84. Moreover, while the industry P/E is 21.31, the P/E of Indowind Energy Ltd is only 12.55. The is going to double from the current market price of Rs.23.10 within a few months.

It is expected to repeat the recent performance of Reliance Industrial Infrastructure Ltd. (RIIL).

5. Electrotherm Ltd:......COMING UP..............