Monday, July 30, 2007

Market Update:
[UPdated at 8 P.M]
Sree Rayalaseema Alkalies and Allied Chemicals Ltd came out with wonderful set of numbers for the June, 2007, quarter; inspite of Rupee Appreciation. This is a wonderful achievement for the company, which is is moving at a lightening pace. I have already mentioned in my earlier write up about the details of the company. But the two/three points needs to be highlighted. i) One of its group companies, which is less stable Sree Rayalaseema Hi-Strength Hypochorite Ltd is at a much higher price than this company
ii) The company is having the capacity to produce 30 MW of power for commercial production, which is sold to Karnataka State Electricity Board. Moreover, its captive power Unit is reducing the power cost for the overall running of the planning and which is power intensive. This is a great advantage for the company
ii) Since the rupee has more or less stabilised against dollar, the company could get benefits of this in the subsequent quarters. Also, teh company gets a substantial part of its income from the European markets, where Euro is the major current and which is stable against Indian Rupee. This is a great postive for the company. But still the company is focussed on the dometic market. With the Indian Economy expected to grow at the rate of 9%--10% per annum, I think the demand for teh company's products will only increase and not decrease. Hence at the current price of around Rs.13, is the best price to pick the stock for some decent appreciation in the days to come:
Financials for June, 2007, quarter(Q1FY-07-08):
The Total Income---> Rs.93.15 Cr ( Rs.91.36 Cr in Q1Fy-06--07)
The Net Profit-------> Rs.5.8 Cr ( Rs.3.9 Cr ...................................)
EPS -->Re.0.86 ( Re.0.55 in Q1Fy-06-07).
This EPS when extrapolated for the whole year, comes to around Rs.4--Rs.5 for FY08; but the EPS can improve as the company has turned around.
The commerical power of 30 MW is sold to Karnataka State Electricity Board. Seems the stock is expected to move up in the days to come. The company's products are used across almost all sectors; as mentioned earlier. The scrip has limited downslide.......
Another undervalued scrip is Simmonds Marshall Ltd in the auto ancillary space. The company could come up with a Buy Back of its shares from the open market as the shrea price does not reflect the true valaution of the company; if that happens then we can expect the shares to shoot over the roof. Ansal Buildwell is available at an attractive valuation at Rs.85; with limited downslide, the stock coud be accumulated at the current price for some decent appreciation in the days to come. If RBI, comes up or hints for a softer interest rate regime in the next credit policy, then the real estate sector, will start to move up vigorously. So, if u bet on softer interest rate regime, in future, a real exposure to real estate sector is a must!!! Besides, stability of Cement and Steel Prices, is positive for the Real Estate sector. I do not vouch, that all the scrips in this sector are worth investing, but there are lot of them now, which could be potential multibaggers in the days ahead.
Rise of the Prices of Crude Oil and its Impact:
Rise in the prices of Crude oil, though looks, somewhat clumsy, when viewed superficially, but this will definitely have a positive effect in the Indian Real Estate Sector; if we look between the lines. The Gulf Countries, which are flush with funds from the sale of High Price Crude has entered into the Indian Real Estate Sector and more and more money is expected to flow in this sector. This is evident as the land prices in Metros and even in Tier-I/Tier-Ii citites, are reaching for the sky. Also, the demand for housing remains almost the same even as the government increased interest rate, from time to time.
RBI in the next credit policy is expected either to keep the interest rate stable at the current rate or go for some cuts; it is because the inflation monstar has been tamed to some extent during these days; due to steps taken by the government. Already the Cement, Sugar, etc. prices have started to tank and with good monsoons, the supply side factors, will be further contained. Already there are signs of good production of Maize, Channa, etc. So, I think the next happening sector is Chemicals (this sector is yet to get the desired valuations) Real Estate, Engineering, Capital Goods, Auto, Auto Ancillary (good monsoon will bring in more money to the hand of farmers who will go for car/ bus / tractor / bus / SPV etc. loans). Besides within a short time, there will be demand pull due to ensuring festive season--when people normally go for purchase of Consumer Durables, Houses, Flats, Automobiles, Electronic Items, etc.
Hence, for the next few months, may be the large caps will show, sideways movement; but there will be stock specific actitivities in the mid and small cap space, in the sector mentioned above. Some large caps like Ranbaxy Laboratories, Dr.Reddy, Crompton Greaves LTd(Recommended to Premium Members), etc. could be potential multi-baggers in the days to come. So, just go on accumulating good stock on reasonable valuations and make money from the markets....
Note: The intorductory offer for the Premium (Paid) Membership ends on or before 15th August, 2007; after which there will be "Serious Price Revision" of the service/package. To know the details rush me a mail at suman2005s@rediffmail.com:
Market ekes out small gain on selective buying
The market, which was strong till late-afternoon trade, following steady buying interest for index pivotals, came sharply off higher level later on fresh selling. Short covering at lower level restricted the fall after the Sensex slipped into the red at one point of time in late trade. Stocks rose in Asia. China’s Shanghai Composite hit all time high. Most of European indices were trading with small gains. Shares from banking sector and select real estate stocks gained on speculative buying ahead of RBI’s monetary policy on Tuesday, 31 July 2007, while metal and auto suffered setback. The BSE 30-share Sensex rose 26.34 points or 0.17% at 15,260.91. It opened higher at 15,278.03 and slipped to a low of 15,135.25 shortly. From here, the index staged a solid rebound to hit a high of 15,451.81 at 14:28 IST. It moved in a range of 317 points for the day. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 5.15 points or 0.12% at 4,440.05. The Nifty August 2007 futures were at 4,402.70, a sharp discount of 37.35 points as compared to spot closing. The market breadth was positive on BSE with 1,360 shares advancing as compared to 1,267 that declined, while 67 remained unchanged The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 21 points or 0.3% to ended at 6,618.99, while the BSE Small-Cap index gained 15 points or 0.2% to 7,941.75. The turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 5031 crore as compared to Rs 6,622.46 crore on Friday, 27 July 2007 The turnover in NSE’s F&O segment was Rs 44285.38 crore as compared to Rs 65777.96 crore on Friday, 27 July 2007 Among the Sensex pack, 17 advanced while the rest declined Hindustan Unilever jumped 6.10% to Rs 208.40 on 14.42 lakh shares after its board of directors at its meeting held on 29 July 2007 approved the buyback at a price not exceeding Rs 230 per share up to an aggregate amount of Rs 630 crore. India's largest FMCG player in terms of sales registered a 29.56% growth in net profit to Rs 493.08 crore in Q2 June 2007 over Q2 June 2006. Net sales increased 12.9% to Rs 3,481.40 crore. It was the top gainer from the Sensex pack. State Bank of India (SBI), the country’s biggest commercial bank advanced 5.40% to Rs 1,581. SBI on Saturday, 29 July 2007, posted 78.6% jump in net profit to Rs 1,425.81 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. The bank’s consolidated net profit jumped 93.3% to Rs 1,862 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Net interest income was up 15% at Rs. 4,497.40 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Cement stocks ACC (up 2.37% to Rs 1023.60), Ambuja Cements (up 2.92% to Rs 128.70), and UltraTech Cement Company (up 2.80% to Rs 899) gained on fresh buying Aditya Birla Group diversified company Grasim Industries gained 2.20% to Rs 2925. Grasim, on Saturday, 29 July 2007 reported a 64.04% jump in net profit to Rs 511.66 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. The total income of the Mumbai-based company increased 30.23% to Rs 2,512.53 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. India’s leading utility company Reliance Energy rose 1.95% to Rs 778.25, after hitting a high of Rs 814.90. It has won the revised bid for the Sasan ultra mega power project (UMPP), the government said today. Last week, the government officially disqualified the Lanco Infratech-Globeleq consortium, alleging misrepresentation of financial data and the subsequent withdrawal of Globeleq from the consortium. Lanco had apparently bid Rs 1.19 per unit in the first auction. REL had previously bid Rs 1.29 per unit. Other suitors in the race for the Sasan project were NTPC and Jaiprakash Associates. L&T, India’s largest engineering & construction firm, rose 0.97% to Rs 2449. The stock had cooled off recently from a solid surge it had witnessed over the past two months. From a lifetime closing high of Rs 2667.55 on 24 July 2007, the stock had lost 9% in three trading sessions to Rs 2425.55 on 27 July 2007. India’s largest private sector company Reliance Industries (RIL) declined 1.27% to Rs 1,842.70 on media reports that it may suspend its $5.2 billion project for producing gas from D6 block in KG basin if the Indian government does not approve its gas price formula by the end of August 2007. The stock hit high of Rs 1900 in early trade after it reported a forecast-beating 28.1% growth in net profit to Rs 3264 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006, on Saturday, 28 July 2007. Revenue rose 14.4% to Rs 28056 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Gross refining margin (GRM) for the quarter was $15.4 per barrel, highest in the company’s history. Aluminium and copper major Hindalco Industries slumped 4.24% to Rs 165.95, on 4.99 lakh shares. It was the top loser from the Sensex pack India’s largest private steel maker Tata Steel lost 0.70% to Rs 647 after it reported 28% growth in net profit to Rs 1222 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Net sales rose 7.66% to Rs 4198 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2007. Sail (down 0.51% to Rs 147.30), Nalco (down 7.65% to Rs 259), and Jindal Stainless (down 1.30% to Rs 164), were the other loser from metal pack. The BSE Metal Index lost 1.05% to 11,381.27. Mahindra & Mahindra, the country’s largest tractor maker by sales slumped 2.82% to Rs 754, after its net profit declined 6.37% to Rs 191.17 in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Total income rose 15.89% to Rs 2644.38 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. The company said despite higher interest rates, strengthening rupee and slowing credit growth, the outlook for the company for the rest of the year remains positive. ITC (down 2.65% to Rs 167.25), TCS (down 1.73% to Rs 1133), and Bhel (down 1.21% to Rs 1640) were the other losers from the Sensex pack. The country’s second biggest bike manufacturer Bajaj Auto was down 1.36% to Rs 2290.85 after the company and French auto major Renault confirmed on Saturday, 27 July 2007 that they are engaged in "preliminary deliberations" to mutually understand customer requirements for "very competitive vehicles" in India. Select realty stocks surged ahead of the quarterly monetary policy review of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday, 31 July 2007. The fortunes of real-estate firms are closely linked to interest rates and shares advanced on speculative buying in anticipation that interest rates will be kept unchanged. However the BSE Realty lost 1.97% to 7,669.85, as sector heavyweight Unitech declined sharply. BSE Realty was the top loser from sectoral indices on BSE. DLF (up 0.63% to Rs 604.15), Orbit Corporation (up 18.87% to Rs 362.80), Mahindra Gesco Developers (up 3.44% to Rs 591.85) and Ansal Infrastructures (up 5.82% to Rs 279) gained from the real-estate sector. Unitech (down 5.62% to Rs 528), Indiabulls Real Estate (down 5.95% to Rs 531.50) and Parsvnath Developers (down 0.31% to Rs 358), edged lower Shares from the banking sector rallied ahead of the crucial quarterly monetary policy review of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) due on Tuesday, 31 July 2007. The BSE Bankex gained 1.70% to 8,055.14, and was the top gainer among the sectoral indices on BSE ICICI Bank (up 1.18% to Rs 925), Indian Bank (up 2.8% to Rs 146.10), Bank of India (up 2.20% to Rs 259.60), UTI Bank (up 3.16% to Rs 628), Indian Overseas Bank (up 2.94% to Rs 129.50), Federal Bank (up 6.2% to Rs 353.20) and Punjab National Bank (up 1.03% to Rs 506) gained from the banking pack. RBI is likely to keep rates steady. However, it remains to be seen whether the central bank will raise cash reserve ratio (CRR) to suck out excess liquidity in the banking system. Andhra Bank rose 4.70% to Rs 88 after its net profit rose 21.2% to Rs 141.09 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Total income rose 30.49% to Rs 1101.91 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Vijaya Bank gained 1.71% to Rs 53.50 after its net profit rose 53.31% to Rs 111.35 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Total income rose 38.97% to Rs 966.75 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Paramount Communications rose 2% to Rs 30.40 after its board approved increasing foreign fund investment limit to 49%. JRG Securities plunged 9.54% to Rs 53.10 after private equity investor Barings made 20% open offer to the shareholders of the company at Rs 49 per share. Varun Shipping slipped 0.54% to Rs 62.75 after it turned ex-dividend of Rs 1.50 per share today. The company’s shares have face value of Rs 10 each. JBM Auto galloped 20% to Rs 82.80 after the company's board approved a bonus issue of one share for every two held. Praj Industries dropped 2.70% to Rs 212.90 even as it reported 237% spurt in net profit to Rs 28.34 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. i-flex Solutions lost 1.26% to Rs 2005 after it reported 54.21% fall in net profit to Rs 58.20 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q4 March 2007. Total income declined 14.86% at Rs 384.64 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q4 March 2007. India Cements jumped 4.53% to Rs 204.15 after its net profit rose 62.89% to Rs 183.4 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Total Income rose 44.88% to Rs 710.91 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Asian markets recovered from initial fall. Japan's Nikkei (up 0.03% at 17,289.30), Seoul Composite (up 1.25% to 1,906.71) and Straits Times (up 0.96% to 3,526.96), edged higher. China's shares rose to a new record high on Monday, 30 July 2007 boosted by investor expectations of strong corporate profits despite government efforts to rein in the sizzling economy. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 2.2% at 4,440.77, surpassing its previous all-time closing high of 4,346.46. It also struck an all time high of 4,450.18 today. Wall Street extended its steep decline for the second straight day Friday, 27 July 2007, pulling the Dow Jones industrials down more than 500 points over the two days after investors gave in to mounting concerns that borrowing costs would climb for both Japan 17, companies and homeowners. The Dow slipped 208.10 points, or 1.54%, to 13,265.47. Broader stock indicators also fell. The S&P 500 ended down 23.71 points, or 1.60 %, at 1,458.95. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 37.10 points, or 1.43 %, to 2,562.24. Oil prices were lower in morning in Singapore trade on Monday, 30 July 2007, on profit-taking even as key producer Iran expressed opposition to any hikes in OPEC crude output. New York's main contract, light sweet crude for September delivery, was down 35 cents at $76.67 a barrel from 77.02 dollars in late US trade Friday. Brent North Sea crude for September eased 41 cents to $75.85.
Among the Sensex pack, 17 advanced while the rest declined:
Hindustan Unilever jumped 6.10% to Rs 208.40 on 14.42 lakh shares after its board of directors at its meeting held on 29 July 2007 approved the buyback at a price not exceeding Rs 230 per share up to an aggregate amount of Rs 630 crore. India's largest FMCG player in terms of sales registered a 29.56% growth in net profit to Rs 493.08 crore in Q2 June 2007 over Q2 June 2006, aided by good growth in beverages and soaps & detergents. Net sales increased 12.9% to Rs 3,481.40 crore. It was the top gainer from the Sensex pack. State Bank of India (SBI), the country’s biggest commercial bank advanced 5.40% to Rs 1,581. SBI on Saturday, 29 July 2007, posted 78.6% jump in net profit to Rs 1,425.81 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. The bank’s consolidated net profit jumped 93.3% to Rs 1,862 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Net interest income was up 15% at Rs. 4,497.40 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Cement stocks ACC (up 2.37% to Rs 1023.60), Ambuja Cements (up 2.92% to Rs 128.70), and UltraTech Cement Company (up 2.80% to Rs 899) gained on fresh buying Aditya Birla Group diversified company Grasim Industries gained 2.20% to Rs 2925 on Saturday, 29 July 2007 reported a 64.04% jump in net profit to Rs 511.66 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. The total income of the Mumbai-based company increased 30.23% to Rs 2,512.53 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. India’s leading utility company Reliance Energy rose 1.95% to Rs 778.25, after hitting a high of Rs 814.90. It has won the revised bid for the Sasan ultra mega power project (UMPP), the government said today. Last week, the government officially disqualified the Lanco Infratech-Globeleq consortium, alleging misrepresentation of financial data and the subsequent withdrawal of Globeleq from the consortium. Lanco had apparently bid Rs 1.19 per unit in the first auction. REL had previously bid Rs 1.29 per unit. Other suitors in the race for the Sasan project were NTPC and Jaiprakash Associates. L&T, India’s largest engineering & construction firm, rose 0.97% to Rs 2449. The stock had cooled off recent from a solid surge it had witnessed over the past two months. From a lifetime closing high of Rs 2667.55 on 24 July 2007, the stock had lost 9% in three trading sessions to Rs 2425.55 on 27 July 2007. India’s largest private sector company Reliance Industries (RIL) declined 1.27% to Rs 1,842.70 on media reports that it may suspend its $5.2 billion project for producing gas from D6 block in KG basin if the Indian government does not approve its gas price formula by the end of August 2007. The stock hit high of Rs 1900 in early trade after it reported a forecast-beating 28.1% growth in net profit to Rs 3264 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006, on Saturday, 28 July 2007. Revenue rose 14.4% to Rs 28056 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Gross refining margin (GRM) for the quarter was $15.4 per barrel, highest in the company’s history. Aluminium and copper major Hindalco Industries slumped 4.24% to Rs 165.95 on 4.99 lakh shares. It was the top loser from the Sensex pack Mahindra & Mahindra, the country’s largest tractor maker by sales slumped 2.82% to Rs 754, after its net profit declined 6.37% to Rs 191.17 in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Total income rose 15.89% to Rs 2644.38 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. ITC (down 2.65% to Rs 167.25), TCS (down 1.73% to Rs 1133), and Bhel (down 1.21% to Rs 1640) were the other losers. India’s largest private steel maker Tata Steel lost 0.70% to Rs 647 after its standalone Q1 June 2007 net profit rose 28% to Rs 1222 crore over Q1 June 2006. Net sales rose 7.66% to Rs 4198 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2007 As per provisional data, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 1475 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of shares worth Rs 727.32 crore on Friday, 27 July 2007. Asian markets, too, recovered from initial fall. Japan's Nikkei (up 0.03% at 17,289.30), Seoul Composite (up 1.25% to 1,906.71) and Straits Times (up 0.96% to 3,526.96), edged higher. China's shares rose to a new record high on Monday, 30 July 2007 boosted by investor expectations of strong corporate profits despite government efforts to rein in the sizzling economy. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 2.2% at 4,440.77, surpassing its previous all-time closing high of 4,346.46. It also struck an all time high of 4,450.18 today. Wall Street extended its steep decline for the second straight day Friday, 27 July 2007, pulling the Dow Jones industrials down more than 500 points over the two days after investors gave in to mounting concerns that borrowing costs would climb for both Japan 17, companies and homeowners. The Dow slipped 208.10 points, or 1.54%, to 13,265.47. Broader stock indicators also fell. The S&P 500 ended down 23.71 points, or 1.60 %, at 1,458.95. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 37.10 points, or 1.43 %, to 2,562.24. Oil prices were lower in morning in Singapore trade on Monday, 30 July 2007, on profit-taking even as key producer Iran expressed opposition to any hikes in OPEC crude output. New York's main contract, light sweet crude for September delivery, was down 35 cents at $76.67 a barrel from 77.02 dollars in late US trade Friday. Brent North Sea crude for September eased 41 cents to $75.85.

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