Monday, December 04, 2006

Hemen Kapadia Concurrs My views on Technical Analysis:

Heman Kapadia the noted Technical Analyst who worked in a number of reputed organisations before forming Morpheus-inc along with Salil Panchal(A very well-know aristrocratic Journalist and Analyst. He was the former bureau head of Mid-day and Business Standard), concurred my views on Technical Analysis. Look what Hemen says on his new site "Judicious use by a skilled practitioner along with an ideal mix of fundamental analysis could conjure up a potent and formidable combination, which could be hard to beat. Contrary to perception that fundamental analysis and technical analysis don’t gel together (obviously there could be clashes from time to time), they do get along and when they actually click (read as match) it could turn out to be a heady concoction and extremely financially rewarding to the sincere practitioner." Then he goes to just speaks my words: "Technical analysis is the process that helps one to minimise losses and lets profits run. However, as with most practices, it must be kept in mind that these are tools that help in beating the odds and are not the panacea for all developments at the financial markets. If things were so simple than this author would not have indulged in consultancy of any form and would have restricted himself to personal trades only. " I have been trying to covey this message for the last few years, without much success: as the stage was hijacked by the maniacs and software vendors who were aggressively painting TA as a Panacea for all problems in the markets. Those who are associated with my group SumanSpeaks must know that I had once poop-pooed a Yahoo-group member when she tried to bring "Pi" to solve all the problems in the market. I thought it fit to reply her, in my usual aggressive style, since I thought such an approach, will save investors from gettign misiguded. I have always maintained that Stock Market Analysis is not so simple that it can be found from some graphs or can be penned in a graph-book. Yes, I have always respected it as another tool for predicting market movements. Now my views have got a stamp from one of the noted Technical Analsysts of India. In the last May, 2006 when I was pouring venom against the views of many Technical Analysts, who were encouraging a different school of thought that the markets are only poised for doom and gloom in future and it would go to a "Continuous bear phase--may be for 3 years",(according to their chartic intrepretations) some of the noted Technical Analsyts including Sach...Cha.., Hiten....Vasu.....etc..were indirectly using the Various News channels (and the help of TV anchors) as a Platform to pass such thoughts as : "Some people think Chartists do not know anyting but Technical Analysts know all", or "Technical Analysts are very accurate when short term price movements are concerned" or " Technical Analsysis is a difficult to understand and intrepret"( This is a total crap) or "Views of Technical Analsysts differ as far as the analysis of waves are concerned"(Another Crap) or "Elliots wave analysis is a remedy to all the problems in the market" or "I have told u that it was the 5th wave of Elliot and hence....." or "I knew it would happen as the markets were in the overbought region" and so on......Since I do not appear on TV, I could not counter their views and could only send my views through my blog and group. I happy that Hemen Kapadia whose famous Price movements Charts in Hometrade & Rediff in 1999-2000 earned him much accoloades, that time; is of the same view. Today I have seen him stictching his fundamental views along with technicals( giving a deadly combination) while recommending on a News Channel.

Also note that what Technical Analysts consider as wave are not "wave" at all in real sense of the term. A wave consists of Crests and Troughs, and only a part of a trough or crest cannot be called be wave--in real sense of the term. Hence the technical analysis is always ambiguous....this is gives software vendors ample chance to exploit the hapless traders, investors, market-men, and the like. Anyway this write-up is not meant to offfend any person or group but to open the eyes of persons against the wild publicity done by Software Vendors to cut the peoples' pockets. More in the following postings..... Best wishes, Suman Mukherjee India.

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